One of the shortest off-seasons in any sport is over, and tennis is back! OK, technically the Hong Kong Open is an ATP 250 that started Dec 30 & was the first event in 2025/last event of 2024 which gave ranking points. There were matches on Dec 31 and Jan 1. Lol. But let’s focus on the Australian Open, which starts tomorrow!
The AO always sets the tone for the year, even though Novax (honestly idc about his vaccine stance, it’s just soo much more fun to say Novax) has almost always won when he’s played in recent memory. But this year it feels extra important. Sinner ended Novax’s undefeated-in-semifinals streak last year in Australia and frankly I think this event or Wimbledon later this year are Djokovic’s last opportunities to win another slam. It will also give us a nice look into if Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has learned from his subpar performances on hard court last year, if Zverev is still a huge choker, and if Sinner will continue his absolutely obscene hard court 2024 season into 2025 (spoiler alert: he probably will). Let’s go player by player in a bit more depth so I have an excuse to include memes for each of them.
Jannik Sinner (#1)
aka “Somehow more boring than Andy Murray”
Current odds to win the tournament: ~48% (+110)
Those pre-tournament odds are big 3 level, which feels a bit crazy. But he should win the tournament tbh, especially given his draw. Best hard court player on the planet by a decent margin at this point. Carlitos, Novax, Zverev all on the other side of the draw. Projected semifinal against Fritz or Meddy, whose number he firmly has on hard court. Projected quarterfinal against Demon, who he has never lost to. Hurkacz or Rune could snag a set or two off him before the QF, but it’s really hard to imagine him losing to one of them… snooze draw for Jannik, matching his personality. Should be fun to not watch any of his matches until the semis and avoid hearing him say “trust the process” in every post-match interview. Hoping for a first Sincaraz grand slam final, which would be insanely hype.
Biased pick: loses to Alcaraz in the final, says “this is a learning opportunity”
Unbiased: wins the tournament beating Novax, says “this is a learning opportunity”
Alexander Zverev (#2)
aka “Believes in karma, but also has really good lawyers”
Current odds to win the tournament: 9% (+1000)
Kyrgios in the 3rd round, assuming Kyrgios is physically fit/doesn’t randomly tank, will be fun, though it seems unlikely Zverev would lose. A projected QF with Ruud or Paul would be entertaining, but again it seems unlikely Zverev would lose to either. The semis with either Carlitos or Djokovic is where I could see Zverev faltering, especially given he’s pretty much a lock to choke in big matches. Garfia on paper should be a slightly better matchup for Zverev than Djokovic, as the court speed should help out his serve as it did in the 2024 edition. But Djokovic’s fitness is also very unclear these days… this half is much more of a coin flip than the Jannik half.
Biased pick: loses in the quarters to Tommy Paul from 2 sets to love up, Henry Heimlich gives up on him
Unbiased: loses in the semis to Novax
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (#3)
aka “Golden Retriever, biggest rival is his barber”
Current odds to win the tournament: 22% (+350)
Not a fun draw. A fourth round with Draper or Korda could be tight, though they both seem to always have physical issues & realistically it seems unlikely Carlitos would lose to either in best of 5 regardless. The QF with Novax is already tough, but if he gets through that he gets Zverev in the semi and then Sinner in the final. The draw gods making it hard to become the youngest man to win the career slam (at 21!), though at least he still has 2 more chances after this year (which is insane). Hopefully his heavier racket & adjusted service motion can help him navigate this rough draw. Gonna be fun to watch all his matches either way, as always.
Biased pick: wins the tournament beating Jannik, celebrates by getting a new barber
Unbiased: loses in the quarters to Djokovic
Taylor Fritz (#4)
aka “Chipotle is 80% of my personality”
Current odds to win the tournament: 3% (+3000)
How did this dude end up world no. 4? I mean I respect him a lot for his grinding improvement and reaching his first slam final last year, and love him for beating Zverev deep in slams twice last year… but he’s clearly a tier below the main slam contenders. Idk it just feels like my man Meddy should be in this slot :( Gotta just adjust to the new normal where Fritz is one of the gatekeepers at grand slams, I suppose. He’s in a quarter filled with Americans, so we’ll get some fun matches, starting with his first round with Brooksby (who’s just coming off a ban for missed doping tests). He could play Shelton in the 4th round and then potentially Tiafoe in the QF.
Biased pick: loses in the 4th round to Musetti, stays till the second week to franchise the first Chipotle in Melbourne
Unbiased: loses in the semis to Sinner
Daniil Medvedev (#5)
aka “Meddy, Memevedev, bullshit Russian, octopus“
Current odds to win the tournament: 6% (+1600)
Ahh Meddy, the funniest man on tour by a wide margin. He would start out with a free break of serve in every match if I was the commissioner of tennis. He just had another kid (congrats!) and I’m sure is very motivated to finally win the AO after losing in the final 3 out of the last 4 years. But he’s sadly been looking a bit frustrated and washed lately… hoping he can turn things around in this tournament. Popyrin will be a tough test in the 3rd round, but Meddy should be able to make it through with the best of 5 format. Regardless, it’s really hard to see him make it past Fritz/Sinner in the quarters/semis.
Biased pick: loses in the semis to Sinner, calls the umpire a ‘small cat’ again
Unbiased: loses in the quarters to Fritz (sad!)
Casper Ruud (#6)
aka “can I please have more playable players in slam finals“
Current odds to win the tournament: 1% (+10000)
Not much to say about this guy tbh. He’s been fairly mid off clay since the ‘22 USO, and I don’t see any signs that’s changing. Feels like his game has been quite static for the last couple years. I’m surprised he’s 6 in the world still.
Biased pick: loses to FAA in the 3rd round, flies directly to Mallorca to golf with Rafa
Unbiased: loses to Tommy Paul in the fourth round
Novak Djokovic (#7)
aka “Novax, can’t make an overhead to save his life“
Current odds to win the tournament: 14% (+600)
Weird to see Novax seeded 7 at the slam he’s practically owned the last 10-15 years. Based on Elo, he’s number 2 ahead of Carlitos – he didn’t play much last year but when he did he usually went deep. It’s really hard to say how he’s going to play in 2025 given his disappointing slam season last year, questions about how motivated he still is, his fitness, and new coach Andy Murray. Biggest wildcard in the draw by far, he could potentially lose early to someone like Machac or Opelka (who he just lost to in straights last week). But even if he goes deep, he’s got a monster draw – it’s hard to see him beating the trio of Alcaraz/Zverev/Sinner all in a row, as he’ll have to do to pick up his 11th AO and 25th slam. Assuming he’s fit, I think the addition of Murray will help him get past Alcaraz with some tactical changes and Zverev is a pigeon in big matches, so he’ll make the final, but it won’t be enough to beat Sinner.
Biased pick: deported again, this time because he forgot to declare his healing disc at customs.
Just kidding, him losing to Alcaraz in straights in the quarters would be fun enough for me
Unbiased: loses to Sinner in the final
Alex De Minaur (#8)
aka “Demon“
Current odds to win the tournament: 2% (+5000)
It’s funny that Demon’s odds of winning the tournament are twice as high as Casper Ruud. Neither realistically has a chance, but at least Demon competes hard and has became way more attack-minded to try to make up for what he lacks in height. It’s impossible to see him get past Sinner in the quarters (he’s 0-9 against Sinner), but he should at least make it there as he has a chill draw until then.
Andrey Rublev (#9)
aka “Rubles, steal my girl“
Current odds to win the tournament: 0.8% (+12000)
Feel bad for this guy. He has a very one dimensional game, a lot of psychological issues on the court, and I hate watching him play, but he’s best friends with Meddy. Lately he’s been playing absolutely terribly and there’s actually a chance he loses in the 1st round as he’s playing Joao Fonseca, the 18 year old from Brazil who won the Next Gen Finals and looks for all the world like a future top 10 player, at least. It still feels like he should make it through that match given just how new Fonseca is to the ATP tour and best-of-5 tennis… but Rublev has been playing so badly that it might be a coin flip. I’ll take Rubles in 5, but I think he’ll lose to Tiafoe in the 3rd round or Meddy in the 4th. Or who knows, maybe Wawrinka will take him out in the 2nd round (the dream).
Grigor Dimitrov (#10)
aka “I wish I was Federer (but don’t we all?)“
Current odds to win the tournament: 1% (+10000)
Things aren’t looking good for Grigor, sadly. He had to pull out of Brisbane a week ago with injury and now he’s in the Alcaraz/Novax quarter. It would be a win for him to make it to the 4th round to play Djokovic… but could see him losing to Lehecka in the 3rd round. Very unfortunate that his body is giving out on him despite him having a bit of a renaissance season last year and him being one of the last champions of the beautiful one-handed backhand.
Spicy first round matches
Fonseca1 v Rublev – must watch. The future vs the perennial slam quarter-finalist
Kyrgios v Fearnley – Kyrgios finally coming back to tennis & Fearnley just breaking into the top 100, should be an entertaining match with patches of high quality play
Djokovic v Basavareddy – Nishesh Basavareddy is an American who’s just 19 and also the younger brother of Ekansh’s IU tennis teammate, which is pretty sick
Tsitsipas2 v Michelsen – another young American taking on Shitsipas… you know who to root for
Sinner v Jarry – Sinner will win but Jarry has been ranked as high as 16, so it’ll be a good watch
Hurkacz v Griekspoor – Gotta love Hubi, but this is a tough 1st round, Griekspoor is a solid attacking player
It’s absolutely wild that Fonseca is only +8000 to win the AO, which is higher than players like Ruud, Shelton, Dimitrov, Tiafoe, Rublev, Hurkacz. That feels insane to me… but I guess it’s true that all of the others concretely have played and not won a slam, where this is Fonseca’s first main draw. I’ll make sure to reference this footnote if he wins the AO to prove my tennis forecasting skills.
Tsitsipas is +8000 to win, the same as Rune and Fonseca?? Lol I need to fade this