Yet again, my wishes have not come true. Iga Swiatek was beaten in a tight three setter by Madison Keys, 5-7 6-1 7-6(8), in a match where she had match point on her serve in the final set. We were so so so close to a first Iga Sabalenker slam final :’( One of the best two matches of 2024 across both the men’s and women’s tour was their absolutely epic Madrid final, with the wild scoreline of 7-5 4-6 7-6(7). We could’ve had something great. Oh well, at least Madison Keys is an American who’s fought her way back from a ton of injuries last year. It’s also been almost 7 and a half years (!) since her first grand slam final in 2017, which is the longest such gap of any woman in the Open Era. Very impressive stuff.
Iga had been on a tear this tournament (as she often is in slams) with her closest set being a single 6-4 in the first round. The Iga bakery was doing good business, with 3 breadsticks and 3 bagels served out to her opponents before the semi:
But even before this semi started, it was clear that this wouldn’t be as straightforward for Iga as her previous matches had been. Keys has exactly the kind of game that can trouble Iga, as she’s a big power hitter who can just take the racket out of her opponent’s hands. Iga has incredible defense and an aggressive game style when she gets on the front foot, but even she can’t do much against a streaking Keys (or Sabalenker for that matter).
This article about Keys before the AO from Heavy Topspin ended up being quite prescient:
Even more striking is the way the American won the Adelaide championship. She served as well as she has in years, indicating that the shoulder is fully healed. She played extremely aggressively, a style that she has never shied away from, but that she sometimes struggles to maintain. Finally, Keys did all that while posting excellent return numbers. The 29-year-old is a two-time semi-finalist at the Australian Open, and if she keeps this up, she could easily make it three.
Set 1: 5-7
The depth of her return felt especially important (not key) for Madison in this match. She’s horribly outmatched in terms of movement, so she has to make sure she attacks returns & hits them hard and deep. And that’s what she did from the first point of the match:
Keys broke immediately. And then got broken back right away with a flurry of errors. And then… broke Iga again. And then Iga broke back again. Quite an edgy start from both to this semifinal, and it was 2-2. Iga managed to hold for the first time, break again with further Keys errors, and then hold for 5-2. Things weren’t looking great at this point for Madison.
And then she found her range. Her serve started landing, she stopped making nearly as many errors, and she made some huge returns to save set point & get the set back to 5-5. Sadly for her, Iga also started attacking her second serve and broke to win the set 7-5. Pretty deflating ending for Keys after all the work she did to come back from 2-5.
Set 2: 6-1
Most players after losing such a deflating set against Iga would probably break down. But Madison was not done yet. She cut down on the errors further but continued to go huge on her returns, allowing her to break Iga immediately (again).
Her return was really the difference maker in this whole match, and the part of her game that appears to have improved the most. From the same Heavy Topspin article linked earlier:
And Madison went on an absolute spree this set. Not only were her returns consistently powerful and close to the baseline, she was also hitting aces/unreturnable serves and just hitting winners from everywhere. Iga’s play was also a bit loose and she looked edgy, perhaps because this was the first time she actually had a battle on her hands all tournament. Keys took Iga to her own bakery and gave her a complimentary breadstick set.
Set 3: 7-6 (10-8)
The third set was where things really got crazy, with both players playing absurdly well at the same time. Keys continued to serve well and play aggressive on return, while Iga got it together and got used to Keys’ huge deep middle returns. Madison also made an adjustment to stand even further up the court on Iga’s second serve returns, giving Iga even less time. Check out this point where Iga literally has to go to the ground to fight off Madison’s huge return, and ends up winning the point:
Both of them had to fight off a break point or two in their early service games in the set, due to the sheer aggression on return from both. There was a big moment at 3-3 30-30 where you could really see Madison’s unwavering confidence in her aggressive game:
As the set progressed, things started to get more tense and they both became a bit edgy. Iga made errors to go down 15-40 serving at 3-4, pressing too early with her forehand down the line, but came up with some great play to hold. Madison did the same the following game, making errors to go down 0-40 and then hitting some big serves to hold from there. The tension ramped up until Iga finally broke at 5-5 off some wonderful defensive play & a poor drop shot from Keys:
I really thought the match was over once Iga broke this late in the third. But Keys stuck to her aggressive returning tactics, forcing to error from Iga with a huge return to save match point at 40-30. Another big return followed by an Iga double fault, the match headed for a deciding 10-point tiebreak.
They both were quite tense at the start of the breaker, losing points on their serve with errors. Iga was clearly looking for Keys’ backhand, as that side was the one bleeding errors at that point, and Keys was continuing to pummel Iga’s serves on return. There were a few really good points from the breaker, showcasing Iga’s ability to absorb pace and surprisingly Madison’s defensive abilities & Iga’s hands at net:
At 7-8, Madison hit an ace and then a huge wide serve, getting her match point on Iga’s serve. Fittingly, she hit a big return to keep Iga back & eventually Iga pressed too hard on the forehand, missing long. Unreal effort from Keys to win this match, and a beautiful moment for her. One of her post-match interviews showed just how much this meant: